As tariffs are applied, rescinded, reapplied and countered, economists are anticipating that food prices will rise.
But what about food availability, especially for perishables like fresh fruits and vegetables? Will we still be able to get fresh strawberries in February?
Northeastern University food-pricing and supply-chain expert John Lowrey says we can still add fresh produce to our grocery list, but we should expect fewer varieties on shelves should a trade war escalate.
“The U.S. consumer will not necessarily see lower availability of avocados, let’s say, but there will certainly be a change in the varieties of avocados on the shelf with characteristics that correspond to changes in how these products are sourced,” says Lowrey, assistant professor of supply chain and information management and health sciences at Northeastern.
For example, more California avocado varieties compared to Mexican varieties.
“Trade relations can change the proportion of a given food variety within the category,” Lowrey continues. “But I don’t think we’re going to see an aggregate reduction in availability.”
Since 1981, fresh fruit imports to the United States have doubled and fresh vegetable imports tripled, facilitated by major trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement of 1994 and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2020.
In 2023, Mexico supplied 51% of fresh fruit imports and 69% of fresh vegetable imports to the United States, while Canada supplied 2% and 20% of the same products, respectively, according to the USDA.
But tariffs on the two countries — which make up the United States’ top trade partners, along with China — threaten to disrupt that trade trajectory.
